It's about fucking time. 26 people gone already and we still have two more weeks of gameplay minimum? Kind of insane. This has (up to this point) been the most entertaining season of anything that I've ever lurked. This cast is insane and also very talented for the most part. There is definitely a lot of different gameplay styles still running around here and I am excited for this merge. I HOPE and PRAY that all of the big dogs don't immediately go for each others throats, but we all know that shit is going to happen. Honestly even some of the lower threat level players succeeding is something that I'm for.
Bret has been pretty UTR for a lot of this game and I think that stands to benefit him here. A good thing about Bret's game is that he hasn't really pissed anyone off? He came for Jay in the beginning but even Jay doesn't seem to care about it now. I think that Bret is definitely someone that we're sleeping on over on our side of things. He is under the heavy threat level, but this is the kind of place that you WANT to be in a merge. Especially with all of these peons who we know are going to be after each other. It sort of gives him some room to move around and play. There are definitely scenarios where Bret can win this game, he is just going to need to try and take more of an active role in making things happen.
Not right now though, I think he's doing wonders by staying out of the spotlight and putting himself out there as someone that people can get to know and maybe eventually use. It's smart, but won't give him a resume if he goes deep just playing that way. He proclaims himself to be a strategist and I believe that he intends to make some magic happen here in the coming rounds.
Erika has been amazing to watch. She is playing in a way that I'm not entirely sure should be working but for some reason is. She somehow rotates so quickly between being the target to having complete control that I can't tell if her game is genius or if she's just crazy. She doesn't really seem to care too much for being a part of long-term alliances which is great because it gives her room to play, but not great because she shouldn't have anyone having her back. Right now, she has some people who are after her or who know that she's fucking shady (accurate) but I think she's going to be able to play a little bit of the middling role here which is PERFECT for her game honestly.
Can Erika win this? Totally, I think that she's not going to let anything stop her from pushing to get her way and will almost definitely be a part of some big moves in the future. The problem comes when you figure that people who know her shit already know she can be a problem, and I don't think that she's going to try and contain who she is in these first few votes. That's something I like about the TC queen, she's going to do whatever the fuck she wants and will do what she can to push and make it happen. But I think she is going to cross some people the wrong way here in the first bit. I'm ready for the lion to be let out of it's cage though.
Genie has probably played the cleanest game out of this whole cast. She was never a target on multiple insane tribes (Kamieros was a team where literally everyone's name besides her was thrown around) and she is here with a lot of strong connections. From both sides. I don't think that she is going to go anywhere anytime soon, because chances are if something spread, she would end up hearing about it this early. The thing is that some people are becoming wise to just how good she actually is. I don't think that anything she does can really help that at this point, so eventually it will be an uphill battle to make it the last couple steps.
We love Genie on the lurkers side of things, it's been great to watch her work and I would love for her to be able to stay with some of the stronger people and make a run here. She has the challenge chops to make it happen with a run coming in late and people do love her enough to keep her around (for now). She's going to be a large part of the beginning of the merge being Rhodes vs Crete because of all the Rhodes connections she has. She is the bridge for some players (Lindsey/Tyler mostly) and I think that eventually that's going to fall apart. But for now, very happy to see her doing her thing and am pulling for her success
Jacob has pleasantly surprised me with how he handled the last few rounds. He took the Dom boot in stride, did and said all the right things to make sure that there was no scenario where he was ever going to go home. He has been in some tough spots in this game, and I always sort of picked him up as someone who was a bit neurotic and not as sociable as some of the others? Sure, people do give him shit about how he communicates but I think that that is going to allow for him to leave less people burnt by him long term. Because I think he's in a great spot here. I think it's pretty obvious that he is going to be more willing to work with the Crete side to start but he is the person that some Rhodes people are going to try and keep tight for later.
He has a lot of game, but I think people know that he's wheeling and dealing so it's not like he can slide under the radar. I'm not sure how he does win this game because he undoubtedly will be a casualty in the war of getting rid of the top threats if he tries to push to be the only threat left. So, something about making the right move eventually is probably best for him imo. But I'm a big Jacob fan, love the video confessionals and his overall personality and he really does sound like he's out here having fun. That's why we do this shit, and I can always get behind someone who's having a good time.
Jay is a fucking monster. There is no world where he should be here right now. He made it through two votes that should have been against him. And you really can't blame anyone else besides him since he's working his magic to anyone who will listen. Somehow the only person who identified that what Jay was doing was Rachel? Because this move for Genie and Ricard was just not great. Genie especially. I'm happy Jay is alive and kicking though because we all know he's about to be a force moving down the stretch here. He's got a lot of game but the problem is that people already know it.
I think all of the lurkers are saying Jay wins if he makes the end. Eh, there's a lot of game to play/mistakes to be made but I think that at this point it's kind of a hard point to argue against. He's got very good reads on the standing of the game and his own standing, ie identifying Genie as a threat but understanding that he needs to keep her around, and I think that he is the kind of person who is going to have to play with the big dogs if he even wants a chance at making the end. I have been impressed multiple times with how strong he's been and even though he has 0 business being in this merge, thanks to all the dummies who let it happen.
Jessica has been great to watch grow this season. I've talked a lot about how I felt about her as a character, I think she's refreshing and different. And she has some game too! The people that she ends up getting close to fucking love her. Her social chops are definitely there. I think there is a couple things she's doing wrong that she really doesn't understand. That will come with some post game reflection and coaching from the podcasts/blogs etc. Like, ghosting people after tribal when you've lied to them is not great. Damage control is missing for sure. Also, she needs to push her own agenda a little bit more because she has the ability to make things happen but feels like she needs to take a backseat.
I would love for Jessica to win this game. I think that would be an incredible story. Do I think it can happen? No, probably not. I think that she is going to continue to rock the game that she has been playing, and I think that isn't going to garner enough respect. I feel like as long as she has Taylor around, she'll just keep by his side, doing what he wants. Which is sweet actually, they're great as a duo. But I think that Jess is already getting flak from her last team, Erika is laser focused on her from last round and she likely would have gone had Zakros lost. I think she's an early merge casualty but she's given me a lot already and I appreciate that.
Lindsey has been so fucking awesome to watch. She has turned her game around completely and has been incredibly impressive for someone who has never played the game before. Like, she's really built a little bit of an empire of people who really trust her in this merge, has a nice new link in Jay after saving his ass and is almost definitely not going to be an early target by anyone sans Tyler (but even Ty knows he needs her early). She keeps us very updated and feels very real. Honestly there's not much to like here. Much like Kimmi said, I believe she would be the most satisfying winner out of who we have left.
She's made some mistakes though and doesn't always have a perfect read of the game. Can't really blame her because we have all the info, and she doesn't but... JD really wanted to work with her and Will. Booting Erika would have saved Hali in the swap because Rodney and her were close. Hindsight is 2020 but I do fear that a bad read can get her focused on someone that she really shouldn't. She has a ton of allies though which is kind of surprising given that throughout the entirety of Rhodes no one trusted her for some reason, I just think that if Genie is already identifying that she could definitely be a winner if she gets there is not good for her long term. I want it bad but don't think she's the most likely to get it.
Rachel is actually who is going to win this game. She started out with nothing and really turned everything around. I think that she has been a little bit more passive than the rest of the cast and it's benefited her a lot coming in to the merge. People do not think that she's a killer top tier top dog player the way that they do a Jay or a Tyler or a Genie and that's right where you want to be. She's also set herself up with connections on BOTH sides of the game, while also making it seem like she isn't that close to anyone from her old game (which is true, actually). She has good reads on the game state and I am still super happy with her being my winner pick.
Because she IS actually a huge gamer. That is a very strong and successful strategy, convince people you aren't as good as you are and then let them realize just as it's too late to do anything about it. So I don't know if she's felt like she hasn't had the push to be the person she normally is or whatever, but what she's doing is good for her game long term. And she's been in these spots, knows how to react and when to bite. Plus ofc listening to her complain about everyone else in confessionals is exactly what we all want. I don't think anyone is really sleeping on her on our side of things but the players sure as hell are and that's going to bite them.
Ricard has been cooling for the last little bit. I think that's taken some of his fav status away from those of us lurking, but I don't think it's really bad for him. I am here for more Ricard because he's been back and spitting in his confessional a bit more. He reminds me of Stranded Penner, took a little bit of a break in the middle of it all and it ended up allowing him to make his way to the end of the game. Much like Rachel, he's taken a bit of a backseat here but is still without a doubt a strong gamer. He is the link the Genie has right now, rather than them being an equal duo in many people's eyes.
That just means that he's going to need to come back out into the light eventually. I think that's what he intends to do, and in the first round of slicing off the threats (which will happen eventually, it always does) he is going to be safe while some of the bigger dogs fall over. A slow ramp back up to the power player that we got to feel in the beginning of the game is probably the best bet for him here. Because he's in there, we've seen that shit early and I think that same deal as Rachel, people have forgotten and when it gets late and they can't do anything about it he strikes.
Shirin is a good gamer. She has gotten herself in a decent position in every team that she's been on and wasn't even going to be the target to leave on her last team when she should have been the obvious one (her or tyler but ykwim). So you can't deny that she's a player, but it's hard to get behind her when we don't know what's going on in her head. I am holding out hope that now that her exams are over she is going to have some more time to dedicate to the game and hopefully to confess because I remember a Shirin close to fan fav back in the early days because she was smart, social, and had good reads. I hope for the return.
If she does return, her dip in activity has definitely put her in a less threatening spot. I think she's dipped a little bit TOO much since her name has been on people's lips/ she likely will be seen more as an appendage to Tyler than a lesser threat going in to the merge. But, much like the last two she has a TON of game up her sleeve, is obviously good and has the opportunity to make it deep with a lot to show for it. So, this could be good for her honestly. Make yourself a non threat and then be a threat later, especially because she knows how to play and win games. Just, if you are gonna come back and win this thing, show us what's up in your head please lol I really wanna like you again.
Taylor gets the biggest bump in respect/favorite since the pre-game merge award. I guess early on there really just wasn't a lot of reason to show what he had because he just sort of coasted, and Jay does take up a lot of space and time but the MINUTE he was on his own, he became a menace. Honestly, those two together are going to be an absolute unit and I'm excited to watch it. But for Taylor himself, he's kind of the whole package. Well rounded, well respected player who has some challenge chops and a killer social game. I think that he has people who bridge the crete/rhodes gap and will keep the target off of himself because of that.
I worry that he ends up getting too big of a target on his back here too though. Zakros has the most players left (who woulda guessed) and I think that people already see Jess as shackled to him. He has Jay as a bigger personality from that team but eventually people who haven't are going to realize that Taylor has it all going on over here. So he stands to benefit from keeping the targets around if he really wants to make that run to the end. I honestly can see a Taylor win happening though, he's less in front of everyone than some people are and could use that to get himself deep. Also the 4some with one from each team is going to help for some of those later pushes.
Tyler has been my favorite for a very long time. I like seeing what goes on in his head which he does such a good job of detailing. My fav thing in the morning is to wake up and read some Tyler confessional lol. I think that he showed that he isn't just good when he's on top on this last team though. He saw he could have potentially been in trouble and decided to lock down a grouping using each original team that literally took everyone's focus off of him. Seriously, Shiring was target one and Jessica was the other name floated out. He's damn good at this game.
The problem is that people know it. I think that Tyler may be the most visible person in the game, and it will definitely be hard to get to the end playing that way. Luckily for him he intends to work with a lot of people who also have visibility which is what you have to do to make it long term. Honestly, he took a big hit in this last swap, losing two people out of Tyler's "army" which we thought would without a doubt be running rampant here at the merge. He is really just picking up the pieces while he can now which could make his threat status a little bit lower? But it may be too late for that. Would love to see him make a run here but I think he is way too high up on peoples watch list.
Wendell is a killer too lol. I said in my last blurb that I think that he played the best game up to this point sans Genie and I stand by that. I think he's sort of out in the open now as someone who was running his last team, which is less good for his longevity, but I think that enough people really want to work with him here. He is very capable socially, understands what to say to get himself out of jams, and has good reads on the game as a whole (sans the whole idol with dom thing). I think that he does a very good job at making himself available to everyone.
He has a lot of things working for him here, some links to the Rhodes side like Genie/Ricard and now Tyler. A solid duo with Erika which could totally bite him yk cause Erika, but I just don't see a way that he gets got here. Definitely not any time soon. I see him being a big pusher to have Crete stay together and I think that when that group gets turned on, it definitely is not going to be Wendell who gets axed out of here first. I've been talking up Wendell the whole time though, kid has a ton of game and I'm happy to get to see him navigate here.
Will is BACK baby. I love the fire Will has in him now that he knows we want him to be his good old Will self. The thing about him taking a round off of the emoji madness is that... we got to see his mind work. He has a lot of things going on there and we all have seemed to forget the iron fucking grip Will had on early Maus. He has this uncanny ability to get people to believe in him and trust him. I think that part of it is who he is, it makes him seem a bit less threatening which is the furthest thing from the truth. I am very excited that he got rid of the people who were trying to push him out though, he has some leverage here.
I think that Will can win this game without a doubt. He reminds me of Rocky in Stranded S25. Had a bit of shtick, got the end and then dropped the whole thing and said it was part of his plan. Now, if Will shows up at FTC and has this amazing speech then honestly his game WILL hold up. Because he's out here playing, making moves, and he's not afraid to do so. The problem is that he can be a little bit trigger happy. Not a problem right now but I worry about if he might try and bump his resume TOO much down the stretch. Whatever it is I'm here for Will.