Dean Kowalski" wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:03:50 pm
Still got more than half a week to go until the next break! Let's see if you can still maintain your sanity by the end of it all.
- Talk of idols and idol clues have been a thing for a couple days now. Do you see yourself getting close to the answer yet? Do you think it's been found already or not? Who, besides yourself, would you be okay with finding the idol, and who do you NOT want to get the idol?
- We are now at F17. How much has the game changed for you since F17 in Stranded in the Aegean Sea, versus your place at F17 in Stranded in Crete/Rhodes?
- Let's talk alliances. Are you in any right now? If you're part of multiple, how loyal are you to them? Are you worried about anyone else being part of an alliance? What do you hope to gain by being in them?
- Who on your tribe right now is likely safe from the next tribal council or two? Who do you think is in hot water and likely to be voted out? What about your own danger level?
1. Yes, I think I am the closest to the answer on my tribe, but I just am not close enough to actually get it. I've found Saint Anthony or Abba Anthony a desert saint who matches most of the clue description but he doesn't seem to be the right answer so I'm looking for alternatives as well because that seems to be leading more in the direction of Egypt and farther from Greece. I've looked at Greek saints but am not finding the proper one that fits the description. I just need 1 more clue to have enough context to put this all together I think. The idol definitely has not been found yet. Ricard and Will aren't active enough or try hards enough to put in the work for it, and Genie, Jacob, or Lindsey would all tell me if they found it and none of them seem even remotely close. Lindsey only knows its about a Saint cause of me and Genie only knows its a person right now. I would be ok with me, Jacob, or Lindsey getting the idol preferably. Genie or Jay haven't it isn't horrible either though because I know it won't be used against me. Will or Ricard are the main 2 I don't want getting it because Ricard isn't active enough to build proper relationships and Will might use an idol to help Tyler.
2. Oh its changed A TON. F17 in Crete I was at the bottom of the barrel breathing through a straw as James and Stephanie and Bradley kept dumping buckets of water on my head. It was rough. F17 in Aegean Sea, I'm gaining more and more control in this game with every single boot that happens. Take a look at the boots since the twist reveal...JD, James, Rodney, Morgan, Stephanie, Brad, Carolyn....every single one of those boots (with the exception of Morgan) is AMAZING for my game because there isn't a chance in hell I would have worked with any of the other 6. Well...ok...James I had a f3 deal with and I would have worked with him and I would have held myself to my word, but at the same time I would have tried to undermine him in hopes he gets shot without my control over it. Sorry James...that's the full truth. But ya...6 out of the last 7 boots have been perfect for Dom and only added to my control in the game. I hope that trend continues and like I have SUCH a good set up on my own tribe that at this point...anyone but Wendell leaving on the other tribe is completely fine with me. If Wendell leaves its not like a critical blow to my game where I'm scrambling...it just means I lost a key figure in my game. Any of the other 7 are no longer key figures in my game with the amount of influence I have on this current tribe. So no Wendell leaving and I consider it a win with any of the other 7. I will cut Wendell myself one day, but I really really want Wendell on that jury because he will be an AMAZING juror for the type of game I play and likely will vote for me.
3. Yes. I'm in a final 3 alliance with Lindsey and Jacob. I'm also in the pairs 6 alliance with Lindsey, Jacob, Ricard, Genie, and Will. I also have unspoken trust with Jay whom wants me in an alliance with his crew of jessica/taylor and jacob as well. Then Rachel would like to work with me but hasn't talked alliances. Bradley from what I heard wants me in his alliance if he makes one too but he isn't active enough to make his own alliance. In terms of what is real....Jacob/Lindsey/Dom is very real 100%. The trust with Jay...that is real until its not. It is very real that I don't want Jay going out before merge. Once merge hits...well...sorry Jay but at that point you'll be on jury and that is the farthest I'm guaranteeing you in my own head because Jay would make an AMAZING juror like Wendell and likely vote for me as well. So yes, I am thinking way ahead about stacking the jury with people that will likely respect my game. That is why Wendell, Jay, Tyler...while they are all threats...they can't leave pre jury for me. I just want to cut off their underlings and take away their source of power, but still have them themselves in the game. Like this is the period of the game I want to go on a goat massacre. I'm not a goat herder...goat herding is completely stupid and only leads to issues for you in most cases. If you play your game right, you don't have to be scared of anyone in the finals and that is the game I'm going to play. Wendell, Jay, and Tyler are the 3 players most likely to beat me in a final 3 right now, so those are the 3 I'm keeping my closest eye on. The rest of the cast I think I can take in a final. Could I beat those 3 too? I'm not saying I couldn't but I don't want to take my chances.
So ya back to the heart of this question...I'm not super loyal to the pairs 6 I'm loyal to Genie, Lindsey, and Jacob in it...but i'm not loyal to Will or Ricard. So I have some loyalty to it, just not to every person in it. Big alliances of that size rarely work out because its hard to keep everyone loyal to every player involved in it. A tight 3 or 4 people is more likely to stick together. Am I worried about other alliances? I wouldn't say worried is the correct word. I'm not worried, but I'm curious is what I would say. Jay is a very smart guy...and Genie is smart as well. It's highly possible they have an alternate alliance without me in it just for their own security. Bradley and Rachel aren't playing hard enough to have a HUGE worry about them being in alliances without me. Sure anything is possible though that is why I am not getting too cocky to say it's impossible. Is it probable? no. However, I'd be naive to not at least be curious and consider the possibility of other groups. A lot of these alliance chats that pop up I know from Crete just end up being troll alliance chats to confuse people.
4. So Bradley is guaranteed to leave at the next tribal unless Jacob or I decide to change our minds. That may sound cocky or conceited..but its the honest truth. Unless Jacob and I change course, no one will deviate from Bradley as an easy boot. The 2nd one after that...Jacob/Lindsey/Jay/Dom/Genie are all safe. Will is in a lot of danger, Ricard and Rachel are in some degree of danger because their names have been on the table depending what circle you are in (i.e. Jay and Genie considering Rachel...Jacob and I considering Ricard at one point, etc). What level of danger am I in? Well you never want to say 0% cause that's when you just get dunked on and get taken out if you get that comfortable. So I never want to get TOO comfortable. However, in order for me to leave in the next 2 boots...it would essentially take the entire tribe turning on me except Jacob/Lindsey so I leave in a 5-3 at the 2nd vote which is an extremely low probability with the amount of social work I have put in with these people OR I could leave via a rock draw or idol play. Honestly, with me being closest to the idol that is unlikely too. So the most likely chance for Dom leaving in the next 2 boots is a rock draw. It is theoretically possible that at the 2nd boot Ricard/Will/Rachel discover their position and convince Jay or Genie to flip to get it at a 4-4. However, I don't think its super possible all 5 come together and flip. Also, if they put the votes on me, then I will be immune if it goes to rocks. Thus it would take a really specific scenario say Genie/Ricard/Will/Rachel voting for Lindsey...then I would go to rocks for Lindsey, and then I pick the bad rock and go out. So can I leave? Yes...anyone can always leave...but would it take a lot of convoluted events occurring to bring my demise? Also yes. So I don't think I'm in a ton of danger until swap #4.